Guiding businesses, investors, and governments through the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity created by today’s New Normal of globally ageing populations

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We personally assist clients in business, investment and government roles to understand the critical influence of demographics and ageing populations on the economy, consumer demand and investment


Sustaining Growth as the West Arrives at the Demographic Cliff

Are you worried about the economic outlook for your company, for your family and for your country? Do you suspect that current policies may be doing more harm than good? Are you interested in exploring a new analysis that focuses on the importance of people, rather than computer-based economic modelling?

This 30 minute video of a keynote presentation by Paul Hodges at a Metal-Pages conference explores:

  • Why economic growth will be much slower for the next 20 years.
  • Why interest rates will also continue to remain low in the major economies.
  • Why policymakers are addressing the wrong issue when they worry about deflation.
  • Why China cannot possibly replace the demand being lost in the West.



The blog has been running for 10 years. It looks behind the headlines, offering an independent viewpoint on the economic outlook and global demand trends.

Major successes have included its August 2014 forecast that a Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus was underway – and warning of its likely impact on debt sustainability due to the cumulative impact of China’s slowdown, falling commodity prices and a rising dollar.

Earlier successes include forewarning readers of the Great Financial Crisis, and correctly forecasting its imminent arrival in early September 2008.


Download the eBook

Written by Paul Hodges and John Richardson, it describes how the ageing of the Western Baby Boomers is changing the global economy.

Download the full ebook (pdf)

Now also available in Kindle format

Our Channel


BBC – Ageing China

BBC News suggests that “China’s economic model is in danger” due to its rapidly ageing population.

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