eBook
The new ebook “Boom, Gloom and the New Normal” is available here. Written by Paul Hodges (Chairman, International eChem) and John Richardson (Director, ICIS Training – Asia) the book details the economic changes brought about by the baby boomer generation of the mid 20th Century.
This page provides a brief summary of each chapter with a link to a chapter overview, where the full chapter may be downloaded (registration required) in pdf format.
Where we have been
This explains how markets and lifestyles are changing as a result of the ageing of the Western baby-boomers. They are the ones with the wealth, and have been the ‘unseen hand’ driving the global economy for the past 20 years.
The financial crisis as the key event dividing the Old Normal from the New
We examine the long-term implications of the financial crisis, and show how we are moving to a new Normal in terms of the global economy.
The ebbs and flows of commodity markets
We look at the rising volatility in commodity markets for energy, food and other key products, and highlight how this relates to the increasingly short-term nature of politics/financial markets.
Where we are headed
We open up some key debates about the nature of the New Normal and explain how this will lead to lower levels of consumption and debt in many countries, together with an increased focus on value and sustainability
The ageing baby-boomers in the West
This studies the key changes underway, and how they are impacting individuals. It looks at financial and social issues, and highlights the challenges that lie ahead.
The impact of the baby-boomers in emerging economies
These export-driven economies will now need to refocus on boosting domestic consumption, as export demand in the West reduces. We discuss what this will mean for future growth prospects.
Lessons from consumer markets
The focus is on how the changes taking place in retail markets can help us to better understand the world of the New Normal. We look at the challenges, and the uncertainties.
Download the complete version of Chapters 1-7 (12mb)
Product issues and the impact on R&D
We discuss the Megatrends concept, and argue that a transition from supplying products to supplying solutions is now underway. R&D will be central to chemical company success in the New Normal, and we identify potential winning strategies for the future, as well as those that are likely to prove dead ends.
CHAPTER 9
Challenges for the manufacturers
Sustainability is central to the New Normal, and we look at the opportunities for manufacturers to develop new strategies for reducing raw materials/utility usage, and develop new feedstock sources, whilst also benefiting commercially from lower capital requirements and operating costs.
CHAPTER 10
Policy issues
We argue that financial markets need to move back towards their true function of supplying capital, and away from frenzied high-speed trading; equally, how finance itself needs to be seen as a utility, not as a wealth-creating activity in its own right.
CHAPTER 11
What will success look like for chemicals companies?
We profile some of the emerging giants in the chemical industry such as SABIC, Sinopec and Reliance, and ask how their strategies will impact established companies such as BASF, Bayer, DuPont and Dow Chemical, as well as discussing the changing roles of the major oil companies such as ExxonMobil, Shell, TOTAL and BP.
CHAPTER 12
The impact on society
This answers the question ‘what does the New Normal mean for me, for my family, my company, industry and my country’. It suggests ways to become a winner, and avoid being a loser.
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