Chart of the Decade – the Fed’s support for the S&P 500 will end with a debt crisis

Each year, there has been only one possible candidate for Chart of the Year.  Last year it was the collapse of China’s shadow banking bubble; 2017 was Bitcoin’s stratospheric rise; 2016 the near-doubling in US 10-year interest rates; and 2015 the oil price fall.

This year, the ‘Chart of the Decade’ is in a league of its own. Produced by Goldman Sachs, it shows that the S&P 500 is in its longest-ever run without a 20% downturn.

The reason for this amazing performance is not hard to find.  It has been caused by the US Federal Reserve’s adoption of Ben Bernanke’s concept that:

“Higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence“.

Set out in 2010, it replaced the previous policy set out by William McChesney Martin that their job was:

“To take away the punchbowl as the party gets going”.

“Don’t fight the Fed” is one of the best short-term investment principles, but the Fed’s success is quite extraordinary when one looks back over the past decade.  Each time the market has threatened to slide, they have rushed in with yet more support:

  • In QE1, the Fed pumped out $1.3tn of support for financial markets, in addition to reducing interest rates to near-zero
  • This free money mostly went straight into asset markets such as stocks, which weakened when the stimulus stopped
  • QE2 came to the rescue with another $600bn of support – but again, stocks then weakened
  • QE3 provided longer-term support, with $40bn/month then increasing to $85bn/month

President Trump’s tax cuts provided even further support when the Fed finally paused, as the Financial Times chart confirms, by encouraging a massive wave of share buybacks.

Remarkably, these buybacks came at a time when profits were actually falling as a percentage of GDP, as the third chart shows. Investors should really have been pulling out of shares, rather than buying more. But after so many years of Fed support, most asset managers had either forgotten how to read a Profit & Loss account and Balance Sheet – or had decided these were irrelevant to stock valuation.

Since September, we have been in a new Fed stimulus cycle. As I noted then, a $50bn hole had appeared in New York financial markets.  Regulators and consensus commentators combined to explain this was only due to temporary factors. But since then, the support has reached $376bn, and the Fed has announced it will happily supply another $500bn of support to cover possible year-end problems, probably taking the total close to $1tn since September.

Behind this panic is the IMF’s warning that the $8.1tn of Treasury bonds available as collateral for the repo market, are in fact “owned” by an average of 2.2 different banks at the same time. Understandably, bank CFOs are pulling back, and trying to establish if “their” Treasury bonds in fact belong to someone else.

Regulators should never have allowed this to happen.  They should also have focused long ago – as I suggested this time last year – on the implications of the decline in China’s shadow banking sector.  Just as I expected, China is now exporting deflation around the world, with its PPI falling since June.

China’s slowdown also means an end to the flow of Chinese cash that flooded into New York financial markets, which hedge funds have then leveraged into outsize profits in financial markets.

The Fed turned a blind eye to this, just as it allowed BBB corporate debt to expand at a record rate, as the chart from S&P confirms.   As we noted in June’s pH Report:

“US BBB grade debt, the lowest grade in which most funds are allowed to invest, is now more than $3tn, with 19% of this total ($579bn) in the very lowest BBB– grade. And this BBB– total jumps to $1tn if one includes financial sector debt. S&P also report that global BBB debt is now $7tn, with US companies accounting for 54% of the total.

“The problem is that BBB- debt becomes speculative debt if it is downgraded by just one notch to BB grade. And most investors are then forced by their mandate to sell their holding in a hurry, creating the potential for a vicious circle, as the most liquid bonds will inevitably be sold first. In turn, this creates the potential for a “waterfall effect” in the overall bond market – and to contagion in the stock market itself.”

The Fed’s focus on boosting the stock market is clearly going to end in a debt crisis.  But when warning of this, the consensus responds as in 2006-8, when I was warning of a global financial crash, “That’s impossible”.  And no doubt, once the debt crisis has occurred, it will again claim “nobody could have seen this coming”.

This is why the S&P 500 chart is my ‘chart of the decade’.

Global economy hits stall speed, whilst US S&P 500 sets new records

Whisper it not to your friends in financial markets, but the global economy is moving into recession.

The US stock markets keep making new highs, thanks to the support from the major western central banks. But in the real world, where the rest of us live, the best leading indicator for the global economy is clearly flashing a red light:

  • On the left is Prof Robert Shiller’s CAPE Index, showing the US S&P 500’s valuation is at levels only seen before in 1929 and 2000
  • On the right is the American Chemistry Council’s  global chemical Capacity Utilisation (CU%), which has fallen back to May 2013’s level

They can’t both be right about the outlook.

Chemicals are known to be the best leading indicator for the global economy. Their applications cover virtually all sectors of the economy, from plastics, energy and agriculture to pharmaceuticals, detergents and textiles.  And every country in the world uses relatively large volumes of chemicals.

The chart shows the very high correlation with IMF GDP data. Even more usefully, the data is never more than a few weeks old. So we can see what is happening in almost real time.

And the news is not good.  The CU% has been in decline since January 2018, and it is showing no sign of recovery. In fact, our own ‘flash report’ on the economy, The pH Report’s Volume Proxy Index, is showing a very weak performance as the charts confirm:

  • The Index focuses on the past 6 months, and shows a very weak performance. It has gone negative even though September – November should be seasonally strong months, as businesses ramp up their activity again after the holidays
  • Even more worrying is that the main Regions are currently in a synchronised slowdown. And each time they have tried to rally, they have fallen back again – a sign of weak underlying demand

And, of course, we are now moving into the seasonally slower part of the year, when companies often destock for year-end inventory management reasons. So it is unlikely that we will see a recovery in the rest of 2019, whether or not a US-China trade deal is signed.

The problem is very simple:

They see no need to focus on understanding major challenges such as the potential impact of ageing populations on economic growth, the retreat from globalisation and the rise of protectionism, or the increasing importance of sustainability.

Perhaps they are right. But the evidence from the CU% on developments in the real world suggests a wake-up call is just around the corner.

Fed’s magic money tree hopes to overcome smartphone sales downturn and global recession risk

Last November, I wrote one of my “most-read posts”, titled Global smartphone recession confirms consumer downturn. The only strange thing was that most people read it several weeks later on 3 January, after Apple announced its China sales had fallen due to the economic downturn.

Why did Apple and financial markets only then discover that smartphone sales were in a downturn led by China?  Our November pH Report “Smartphone sales recession highlights economic slowdown‘, had already given detailed insight into the key issues, noting that:

“It also confirms the early warning over weakening end-user demand given by developments in the global chemical industry since the start of the year. Capacity Utilisation was down again in September as end-user demand slowed. And this pattern has continued into early November, as shown by our own Volume Proxy.

The same phenomenon had occurred before the 2008 Crisis, of course, as described in The Crystal Blog.  I wrote regularly here, in the Financial Times and elsewhere about the near-certainty that we were heading for a major financial crisis. Yet very few people took any notice.

And even after the crash, the consensus chose to ignore the demographic explanation for it that John Richardson and I gave in ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal: How the Western BabyBoomers are Changing Demand Patterns, Again’.

Nothing seems to change.  So here we are again, with the chart showing full-year 2018 smartphone sales, and it is clear that the consumer downturn is continuing:

  • 2018 sales at 1.43bn were down 5% versus 2017, with Q4 volume down 6% versus Q4 2017
  • Strikingly, low-cost Huawei’s volume was equal to high-priced Apple’s at 206m
  • Since 2015, its volume has almost doubled whilst Apple’s has fallen 11%

And this time the financial outlook is potentially worse than in 2008.  The tide of global debt built up since 2008 means that the “World faces wave of epic debt defaults” according to the only central banker to forecast the Crisis.

“WALL STREET, WE HAVE A PROBLEM”

So why did Apple shares suddenly crash 10% on 3 January, as the chart shows? Everything that Apple reported was already known.  After all, when I wrote in November, I was using published data from Strategy Analytics which was available to anyone on their website.

The answer, unfortunately, is that markets have lost their key role of price discovery. Central banks have deliberately destroyed it with their stimulus programmes, in the belief that a strong stock market will lead to a strong economy. And this has been going on for a long time, as newly released Federal Reserve minutes confirmed last week:

  • Back in January 2013, then Fed Governor Jay Powell warned that policies “risked driving securities above fundamental values
  • He went on to warn that the result would be “there is every reason to expect a sharp and painful correction
  • Yet 6 years later, and now Fed Chairman, Powell again rushed to support the stock market last week
  • He took the prospect of interest rate rises off the table, despite US unemployment dropping for a record 100 straight months

The result is that few investors now bother to analyse what is happening in the real world.

They believe  they don’t need to, as the Fed will always be there, watching their backs. So “Bad News is Good News”, because it means the Fed and other Western central banks will immediately print more money to support stock markets.

And there is even a new concept, ‘Modern Monetary Theory’ (MMT), to justify what they are doing.

THE MAGIC MONEY TREE PROVIDES ALL THE MONEY WE NEED

There are 3 key points that are relevant to the Modern Monetary Theory:

  • The Federal government can print its own money, and does this all the time
  • The Federal government can always roll over the debt that this money-printing creates
  • The Federal government can’t ever go bankrupt, because of the above 2 points

The scholars only differ on one point.  One set believes that pumping up the stock market is therefore a legitimate role for the central bank. As then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke argued in November 2010:

“Higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.”

The other set believes instead that government can and should spend as much as they like on social and other programmes:

“MMT logically argues as a consequence that there is no such thing as tax and spend when considering the activity of the government in the economy; there can only be spend and tax.

The result is that almost nobody talks about debt any more, and the need to repay it.  Whenever I talk about this, I am told – as in 2006-8 – that “I don’t understand”.  This may be true. But it may instead be true that, as I noted last month:

“Whilst Apple won’t go bankrupt any time soon, weaker companies in its supply chain certainly face this risk – as do other companies dependent on sales in China. And as their sales volumes and profits start to fall, investors similarly risk finding that large numbers of companies with “Triple B” ratings have suddenly been re-rated as “Junk”:

  • Bianco Research suggest that 14% of companies in the S&P 1500 are zombies, with their earnings unable to cover interest expenses
  • The Bank of International Settlements has already warned that Western central banks stimulus lending means that >10% of US/EU firms currently “rely on rolling over loans as their interest bill exceeds their EBIT. They are most likely to fail as liquidity starts to dry up”.

I fear the coming global recession will expose the wishful thinking behind the magic of the central banks’ money trees.

Chart of the Year – China’s shadow banking collapse means deflation may be round the corner

Last year it was Bitcoin, in 2016 it was the near-doubling in US 10-year interest rates, and in 2015 was the oil price fall.  This year, once again, there is really only one candidate for ‘Chart of the Year’ – it has to be the collapse of China’s shadow banking bubble:

  • It averaged around $20bn/month in 2008, a minor addition to official lending
  • But then it took off as China’s leaders panicked after the 2008 Crisis
  • By 2010, it had shot up to average $80bn/month, and nearly doubled to $140bn in 2013
  • President Xi then took office and the bubble stopped expanding
  • But with Premier Li still running a Populist economic policy, it was at $80bn again in 2017

At that point, Xi took charge of economic policy, and slammed on the brakes. November’s data shows it averaging just $20bn again.

The impact on the global economy has already been immense, and will likely be even greater in 2019 due to cumulative effects.  As we noted in this month’s pH Report:

“Xi no longer wants China to be the manufacturing Capital of the world. Instead his China Dream is based on the country becoming a more service-led economy based on the mobile internet.  He clearly has his sights on the longer-term and therefore needs to take the pain of restructuring today.

“Financial deleveraging has been a key policy, with shadow bank lending seeing a $609bn reduction YTD November, and Total Social Financing down by $257bn. The size of these reductions has reverberated around Emerging Markets and more recently the West:

  • The housing sector has nose-dived, with China Daily reporting that more than 60% of transactions in Tier 1 and 2 cities saw price drops in the normally peak buying month of October, with Beijing prices for existing homes down 20% in 2018
  • It also reported last week under the heading ’Property firms face funding crunch’ that “housing developers are under great capital pressure at the moment”
  • China’s auto sales, the key to global market growth since 2009, fell 14% in November and are on course for their first annual fall since 1990
  •  The deleveraging not only reduced import demand for commodities, but also Chinese citizens’ ability to move money offshore into previous property hotspots
  • Real estate agents in prime London, New York and other areas have seen a collapse in offshore buying from Hong Kong and China, with one telling the South China Morning Post that “basically all Chinese investors have disappeared “

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS ARE NOW FEELING THE PAIN

As I warned here in June (Financial markets party as global trade wars begin), the global stock market bubble is also now deflating – as the chart shows of the US S&P 500.  It has been powered by central bank’s stimulus policies, as they came to believe their role was no longer just to manage inflation.

Instead, they have followed the path set out by then Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, in November 2010, believing that:

“Higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.”

Now, however, we are coming close to the to the point when it becomes obvious that the Fed cannot possibly control the economic fortunes of 325m Americans. Common sense tells us that demographics, not monetary policy, drive demand. Unfortunately, vast amounts of time and money have been wasted by central banks in this  failed experiment.

The path back to fiscal sanity will be very hard, due to the debt that has been built up by the stimulus policies.  The impartial Congressional Budget Office expects US government debt to rise to $1tn.

Japan – the world’s 3rd largest economy – is the Case Study for the problems likely ahead:

  • Consumer spending is 55% of Japan’s GDP.  It falls by around a third at age 70+ versus peak spend at 55, as older people already own most of what they need, and are living on a pension
  • Its gross government debt is now 2.5x the size of its economy, and with its ageing population (median age will be 48 in 2020), there is no possibility that this debt can ever be repaid
  • As the Nikkei Asian Review reported in July, the Bank of Japan’s stimulus programme means it is now a Top 10 shareholder in 40% of Nikkei companies: it is currently spending ¥4.2tn/year ($37bn) buying more shares
  • Warning signs are already appearing, with the Nikkei 225 down 12% since its October peak. If global stock markets do now head into a bear market, the Bank’s losses will mount very quickly

CHINA MOVE INTO DEFLATION WILL MAKE DEBT IMPOSSIBLE TO REPAY

Since publishing ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal: how the Ageing Boomers are Changing Demand Patterns, Again“, in 2011 with John Richardson, I have argued that the stimulus policies cannot work, as they are effectively trying to print babies.  2019 seems likely to put this view to the test:

  • China’s removal of stimulus is being matched by other central banks, who have finally reached the limits of what is possible
  • As the chart shows, the end of stimulus has caused China’s Producer Price Inflation to collapse from 7.8% in February 2017
  • Analysts Haitong Securities forecast that it will “drop to zero in December and fall further into negative territory in 2019

China’s stimulus programme was the key driver for the global economy after 2008.  Its decision to withdraw stimulus – confirmed by the collapse now underway in housing and auto sales – is already putting pressure on global asset and financial markets:

  • China’s lending bubble helped destroy market’s role of price discovery based on supply/demand
  • Now the bubble has ended, price discovery – and hence deflation – may now be about to return
  • Yet combating deflation was supposed to be the prime purpose of Western central bank stimulus

This is why the collapse in China’s shadow lending is my Chart of the Year.

Financial markets party as global trade wars begin

More people left poverty in the past 70 years than in the whole of history, thanks to the BabyBoomer-led economic SuperCycle.  World Bank and OECD data show that less than 10% of the world’s population now live below the extreme poverty line of $1.90/day, compared to 55% in 1950.

Globalisation has been a key element in enabling this progress, as countries and regions began to trade with each other.  But now global trade is starting to decline, as the chart from the authoritative Dutch World Trade Monitor shows:

  • After a good start to 2018, February saw trade fall 0.7% in February and 1.2% in March
  • The major slowdown was in Asia, particularly China, as its lending began to slow

And then on Friday, President Trump confirmed the opening of his long-planned trade wars:

  • He imposed 25% import tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminium from Canada, Mexico and the European Union
  • Similar tariffs were already in place on imports from China, Russia and other countries
  • America’s longest standing allies have since imposed their own sanctions in retaliation
  • The stage is now set for a developing global trade war as more countries join in

PRESIDENT TRUMP IS IMPLEMENTING THE POLICIES ON WHICH HE WAS ELECTED
None of this should have been a surprise, as it simply follows the agenda that President Trump set out in his Gettysburg speech just before the election.  His policy proposals then, which I featured here in depth in January 2017, were crystal clear about his objectives, as the slide shows:

  • Those policies marked in red are now being introduced
  • Only 2 of them – around China being a currency manipulator, and infrastructure – are still to be delivered
  • Yet companies, commentators and analysts have preferred to ignore the obvious

It was clear then, and is even clearer today, that Trump intends to abandon the policies followed by all post-War Republican and Democratic presidents including Eisenhower, Reagan and Clinton, and summarised in President Kennedy’s 1961 Inauguration Speech:

“To those old allies whose cultural and spiritual origins we share, we pledge the loyalty of faithful friends. United there is little we cannot do in a host of cooperative ventures. Divided there is little we can do–for we dare not meet a powerful challenge at odds and split asunder.”

As I noted after Trump’s own Inauguration Speech in January last year, he broke very explicitly with these policies:

“We assembled here today are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city in every foreign capital and in every hall of power. From this day forward, a new vision will govern our land. From this day forward, it’s going to be only America first, America first. Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs will be made to benefit American workers and American families.”

BAD NEWS HAS ALWAYS LED TO MORE STIMULUS IN THE PAST

Unsurprisingly, financial markets have chosen to ignore this rise in protectionism.  For them, bad news is always good news, as they expect the central banks to provide more stimulus via their money-printing policies.  As the left-hand chart shows of Prof Robert Shiller’s CAPE Index (Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings ratio) since 1881:

  • When Trump took office, the ratio was already at 28.5 – above the 1901 and 1966 peaks
  • Since then it has peaked at 33.3, above the 1929 peak
  • Only 2000 was higher at 44, when the end of the SuperCycle coincided with the Fed’s first liquidity programme to prevent any problems with the Y2K issue

The right-hand chart confirms the bubble nature of the rally:

  • It compares S&P 500 developments with the level of margin debt in the New York Stock Exchange
  • Until 1985, the Fed operated on the principle of “taking away the punchbowl as the party gets going
  • Since then, it has increasingly believed, as then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in November 2010

“Higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.

As a result, the S&P 500 has risen along with margin debt, which peaked at $659bn in January ($2018).

FINANCIAL MARKETS HAVE AN UNPLEASANT “SURPRISE” AHEAD AS CHINA SLOWS
It is therefore no great surprise that financial markets have continued to ignore developments in the real world.

Yet a decline in world trade, and the rise in protectionism, will inevitably produce Winners and Losers.  This will be quite different from the SuperCycle, when the rise of globalisation created “win-win opportunities” for countries and regions:

  • Essentially the deal was that consumers in richer countries got cheaper, well-made, products
  • People in poorer countries gained paid employment for the first time in history by making these products

History also suggests President Trump will be proved wrong with his March suggestion that:  “Trade wars are good and easy to win”.  Like all wars, they are easy to start and increasingly difficult to end.

So far, financial markets have ignored these uncomfortable facts.  They still believe that any bad news will lead to even more central bank stimulus, and a further rise in margin debt.

But as I noted last week, China – not the Fed – was in fact the major source of stimulus lending.  Now its lending bubble is history, the party in financial markets is inevitably entering its end-game.

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Chart of the Year: Bitcoin, the logical end for stimulus policies

Last year it was the near-doubling in US 10-year interest rates.  In 2015, it was the oil price fall.  This year, there is really only one candidate for ‘Chart of the Year’ – it has to be Bitcoin:

  • It was trading at around $1000 at the start of 2017 and had reached $5000 by August
  • Then, after a brief correction, it stormed ever-higher, reaching $7000 last month
  • On Friday it was trading around $19000 – fortunes are being made and lost all the time

The beauty of the concept is that nobody really has a clue about what it is all about.  You can read the Wikipedia entry as many times as you like, and still not gain a clear picture of what Bitcoin is, and what it does.  But why would you want to know such boring details?

All anyone has to know is that its price is going higher and higher.  Plus, of course, there is the opportunity to laugh at stories of people who bought Bitcoins, but then lost the code – for an excellent example by a former editor of WIRED (with a happy ending), click here.

But there is another side to the story, as the second chart suggests.  “Mining” Bitcoins now uses more electricity than a number of real countries, like Ireland, for example:

  • On Friday, Bitcoin’s current annual consumption reached 33.73TWh – equivalent to Belarus’ 9 million people
  • Each transaction produces 117.5kg of CO2, as the network is powered by cheap coal-fired power plants in China
  • It also uses thousands of times more energy than a credit card swipe 

And, of course, interest is growing all the time as people rush to get rich.  Today sees the start of Bitcoin futures trading on the CME, a week after they began on the CBOE and CME.  Bloomberg suggests Exchange Traded Funds based on Bitcoin will be next.  In turn, these developments create more and more demand, and push prices ever-higher.

Comparisons have been made with the Dutch tulip mania in 1836-7, when prices peaked at 5200 guilders.  At that time, Rembrandt’s famous Night Watch painting was being sold for 1600 guilders, and at its peak a tulip bulb would have bought 156000lbs of bread.  Bitcoin probably won’t equal this ratio until next year, if its current price climb continues.

Of course, one key difference between tulips and Bitcoin is supposedly that there were always more tulips to buy – whilst there are just 21 million Bitcoins available to be mined.  And apparently, around 80% of these have been mined. Bitcoin enthusiasts therefore suggest Bitcoins will have increasing scarcity value.  But, of course, anyone can create a crypto-currency and many people have – such as Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold, and the Ethereum family.

Yet already, Bitcoin’s market capitalisation* is getting close to that of the “tech stocks” such as Apple, Alphabet (formerly Google), Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook as the chart from Pension Partners shows:

  • On 7 December, less than 2 weeks ago, its market cap was already higher than major US stocks such as Home Depot and Pfizer
  • On Friday, it hit $323bn, above Wal-Mart and P&G and close to ExxonMobil
  • This also made it worth more than the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights
  • And the total market cap of the 10 largest crypto-currencies has now reached $500bn, equal to Facebook

This is an amazing amount of money to be tied up in an asset which has no intrinsic value.  After all, what is Bitcoin?  It certainly isn’t real, although the media like to picture it as a gold coin:

  • Although it is called a crypto-currency, its volatility makes it unattractive as a currency – major changes in a currency’s value can easily cause businesses (and countries) to go bust, and Bitcoin’s value has moved by 1900% just this year
  • Nor is it a method of settling transactions, as its value is increasing all the time – obviously a good deal for the person who receives the Bitcoin when its price is rising, but why would any sensible person pay with a Bitcoin?
  • So essentially, therefore, Bitcoin is simply a speculative asset, where its value is based on the “greater fool theory”, which says “I know its not really worth anything, but I am clever enough to sell out before it hits the top”

The “story” behind its boom is also powerful because it is linked to the great investment theme of our time, the internet.  We have all seen the fortunes that can be made by investing in companies such as Apple.  Now, Bitcoin supposedly offers us the chance to invest in the Next Big Thing – a new currency, entirely based on the internet.

BITCOIN HAS MANY PARALLELS WITH OTHER MANIAS IN HISTORY, SUCH AS THE SOUTH SEA BUBBLE 
The Bitcoin mania has many parallels, such as with the South Sea Bubble from 1719 – 1720.  Its power was also based on “the greater fool theory”, and its linkage to the great investment theme of its time – the opening up of foreign trade.  As the chart from Marc Faber shows, one of its early investors was Sir Isaac Newton – one of the most intelligent people ever to live on the planet, who discovered Newton’s laws of motion and invented calculus.  Newton doubled his money very quickly when he first invested, but then re-invested at a higher price – and lost the lot.

Of course, all the dreams associated with Bitcoin and the other crypto-currencies may come true. That is part of their attraction.  Another part of their attraction is for criminals, who can launder money without being traced.  So most likely, prices will continue rising for some time as more and more people around the world see a chance of getting rich very quickly.  We have never seen a global mania before, so nobody can tell how long it will last.

The question for governments, however, is what would happen to the economy if the mania collapsed?  Only China has so far banned Bitcoin trading, as Pan Gongsheng, a deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, explained:

“If we had not shut down bitcoin exchanges and cracked down on ICOs several months ago, if China still accounted for more than 80% of the world’s bitcoin trading and ICO fundraising, everyone, what would happen today? Thinking of this question makes me scared.”

Having let the mania develop this far, other governments  are in a difficult position – millions of people would complain if they closed down these currencies today.  And most governments are reluctant to intervene as, in reality, crypto-currencies are essentially the creation of central bank stimulus policies, as explained by US Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, in November 2010:

“Higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.” 

But by letting the mania continue, the potential impact from its collapse will increase.  Added together, crypto-currencies already have the same market cap as Facebook – and could soon overtake Apple to become the most valuable “stock” in the world.  Yet unlike Apple, they have no sales, no income and no assets.

Bernanke and the major central banks wanted to stimulate investors’ “animal spirits”, so that they would take on more and more risk.  Crypto-currencies are therefore the logical end result of their post-crisis strategy. The end of the Bitcoin mania, whenever it occurs, will therefore also mark the end of stimulus policies.

 

*Bitcoin’s market capitalisation is its equity valuation – the current dollar price multiplied by the number of Bitcoins in existence

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