Most economic forecasts are too optimistic
on January 31, 2009

GDP forecasts.jpgProf David Blanchflower, of the Bank of England, is not optimistic that the current recession will end soon. He notes that “few macro-economists actually spotted the greatest financial crisis in a hundred years”. And in the chart above, showing OECD forecasts for the UK economy during the last recession, he demonstrates that forecasters kept predicting a “V-shaped recovery” for the whole 3 years of the downturn.

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