There have so far been 3 stages to the oil price collapse since I first forecast this development in mid-August:
- The first stage saw prices reach my initial forecast target of $70/bbl in November
- They then fell further to reach my second price target of $50/bbl in January
- Since then, prices have been trading in a wide range. Daily moves of $2/bbl, up and down, have been common
This volatility is understandable as very few traders, producers, consumers or analysts had forecast the collapse. Many have been struggling to make sense of what has been happening.
As we move into the spring, it seems likely that a 4th stage will develop. This will continue the process of taking prices back to their historical level around $30/bbl – as I describe in the enclosed new analysis for ICIS Chemical Business.
We have therefore decided to focus on oil prices, and China’s new economic direction, as the main topics for our next free ‘pH Report’ webinar on Tuesday 17 March. This will include a Q&A to enable discussion of the critical questions for your business and investments.
I hope you will be able to join the webinar, and look forward to the discussion.