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Paul Hodges, interviewed in MoneyWeek: ‘How to Invest during the Great Unwind’

“His crystal ball works so much better than everyone else’s.  The last time I met with Paul Hodges, an expert on the economic impact of demographics, he told me that deflation was coming, that we should all buy more gilts, and that if you held shares in Tesco you should dump them. He was right on all those things.  In August 2014, he sent me a report saying oil would fall to $50 a barrel in the first half of this year.  That, clearly has happened already”
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The pH Report aims to guide investors and companies through the Great Unwinding of central bank and government stimulus policy now underway:

  • China’s economy is slowing fast as the new leadership implements the World Bank’s ‘China 2030’ plan
  • Prices for oil and other commodities are falling sharply as supply/demand once again becomes the key driver for markets
  • The US$ is strengthening and liquidity is tightening across the world
  • Equity markets risk sharp falls, as investors realise they have overpaid for future growth and rush for the exits
  • Interest rates are becoming volatile as some investors seek a ‘safe haven’, whilst others worry that debt created by the stimulus policies will never be repaid

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Paul Hodges is also co-author of the influential ebook ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’. Its analysis of the key role of demographics in the global economy is now attracting increasing attention from senior policymakers and executives.