The litmus test for the global economy

Stock markets risk Wile E. Coyote fall despite Powell’s rush to support the S&P 500

How can companies and investors avoid losing money as the global economy goes into a China-led recession?  That’s the key question as we enter 2019.  We have reached a fork in the road: Since 2008, Western central bankers have focused on supporting stock markets But the bursting of China’s shadow banking bubble means this cannot continue for

China’s central bank governor warns of ‘Minsky Moment’ risk

The world is coming to the end of probably the greatest financial bubble ever seen.  Since the financial crisis began in 2008, central banks in China, the USA, Europe, the UK and Japan have created over $30tn of debt. China has created more than half of this debt as the chart shows, and its total debt […]

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Eurozone joins Japan’s ‘currency war’ versus the US dollar

The last 10 days have seen turmoil in major currency markets: The Swiss National Bank gave up trying to devalue versus the euro, and the franc jumped 30% in minutes The European Central Bank (ECB) launched its €1tn Quantitative Easing (QE) programme, causing an immediate 3% fall in the euro’s value versus the dollar These are major moves by any historical […]

JP Morgan says ‘Buy China’, as coal stocks show economy slowing

China seems to be trying to tell the outside world something quite important about the impact of its economic policy changes.  But to judge by most expert commentary, the outside world is convinced they are bluffing.  Thus JP Morgan issued a Buy recommendation yesterday on the Shanghai market: “Chinese stocks will probably rally as much […]