Next week, I will publish my annual Budget Outlook, covering the 2018-2020 period. The aim, as always, will be to challenge conventional wisdom when this seems to be heading in the wrong direction. Before publishing the new Outlook each year, I always like to review my previous forecast. Past performance may not be a perfect […]
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Next month sees the start of a process that could change all our lives. Whether we live in Europe, or outside it, the political decisions about to be made have the potential to impact every country in the world – for better or worse. And yet, nobody has yet begun to put together the various […]
Europe’s migrant crisis is creating a risk that the free movement of individuals and trade within Europe might be restricted. We take this for granted today, as the Schengen Agreement of 1995 has largely abolished border checks within 26 European countries – covering a population of over 400 million people and an area of 4,312,099 square […]
The European petrochemicals industry is in crisis. Operating rates dropped below 85% in H2 2008, and have never recovered. Now there is a danger that it faces death by a thousand cuts. This would be a tragedy for the European economy, as it would imply the loss of tens of thousands of well-paid jobs along […]
Benzene has always been one of the blog’s favourite leading indicators for the global economy. The reason is simple, in that it has been around a long time, and is now used in a very wide range of industries. So it provides us with a broad-based picture of the global economy. The chart above highlights another important […]
Europe goes on holiday during August, so we have to wait – with not quite breathless anticipation – until September to see official ACEA auto sales figures for July and August.
Unfortunately, they contained no real surprises. July (red square) …