We are seeing the end of the two great “dividends” that have powered global growth since the 1980s:

The “demographic dividend” created by the BabyBoomer generation is now a “demographic deficit”, as the Boomers have all joined the lower-spending, lower-earning Perennials 55+ cohort. And we have lost the “peace dividend” created by the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, that allowed $tns to be diverted from defence to health and social spending.

Business

• Auto, consumer goods, electronics demand will focus on durability/sustainability
• Global supply chains are no longer viable in a world of Tariff and Trade Wars
• New business models based on a ‘local-for-local’ approach need to be developed and implemented

Finance

• Investors are focusing on the problems created by high levels of global debt at a time when there is a need to dramatically increase defence spending
• The Perennials are now the main source of population growth in the major economies and globally – and so GDP growth is inevitably declining
• Today’s ageing populations are essentially a replacement economy, adding to the challenge of servicing today’s record levels of global debt

Geopolitics

•  Economics are no longer the main factor in decision-making. We are back to a world where politics is the key driver for decisions
•  Major wars are now underway in Ukraine and the Middle East. Defence spending is inevitably increasing again, with countries aiming for a minimum of 2.5% of GDP
• China’s plan to replace jobs lost with the end of its property bubble – by boosting manufacturing exports – is creating major over-capacity in global markets.