We hope this new weekly Briefing will help you identify key changes in the wider landscape that may impact you and your business. We focus on critical areas for the economy including oil and financial markets.
Some of these changes are already becoming obvious, such as rising levels of debt and the threat of deflation due to lack of demand. Others are still to appear, and relate to the way behaviour is likely to change once the pandemic is over. Our analysis is based on a lifetime’s experience of working in these markets.
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pH Outlook Briefings
Markets ignored our forecast of a Donald Trump win in 2016. And now they are ignoring the risk that he might not accept the result, if he loses in November.
Global chemical data for June shows demand remains weak
Last week’s European Council meeting set a new course in the right direction.
China is now being hit by its worst floods in decades. And Covid-19 virus cases are surging in a number of major US states.
Central banks have created impressive bubbles in financial markets – but what will happen if the promised V-shaped recovery never appears?
Companies are about to start telling us how things really are in their markets. It may prove a powerful wake-up call
Investors don’t like to ask too many questions when markets are in their ‘blow-off’ phase. And it’s too late to ask them when the bankruptcies start.
Mr. Coyote used to run off cliffs and take several steps on thin air before noticing that there was nothing underneath his feet. Only then would he plunge..
Experienced investors have always claimed the bull market wouldn’t end until new retail investors rushed to join in.
pH Outlook team
Paul Hodges is a Global Expert with the World Economic Forum: he speaks regularly at international conferences and writes for the Financial Times.
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Daniël de Blocq van Scheltinga
Daniël de Blocq van Scheltinga Is Hong Kong-based with a background in investment/ corporate banking; he was the first foreigner to run an SOE’s finance department in China.
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David Hughes is an expert on the Middle East, and worked in Saudi Arabia for 5 years.
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Dr Paul W Satchell
Paul Satchell understands financial markets, having been an equity analyst with several leading investment banks.
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This Research Note has been prepared by IeC for general circulation. The information contained in this Research Note may be retained. It has not been prepared for the benefit of any particular company or client and may not be relied upon by any company or client or other third party. IeC do not give investment advice and are not regulated under the UK Financial Services Act. If, notwithstanding the foregoing, this Research Note is relied upon by any person, IeC does not accept, and disclaims, all liability for loss and damage suffered as a result. The pH Report and pH Outlook are published by IeC.
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