We hope this new weekly Briefing will help you identify key changes in the wider landscape that may impact you and your business. We focus on critical areas for the economy including oil and financial markets.
Some of these changes are already becoming obvious, such as rising levels of debt and the threat of deflation due to lack of demand. Others are still to appear, and relate to the way behaviour is likely to change once the pandemic is over. Our analysis is based on a lifetime’s experience of working in these markets.
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pH Outlook Briefings
Wall Street is focused on central banks’ response to the pandemic, whilst Main Street focuses on its actual impact.
The Hertz rental car bankruptcy in the US highlights the risks to the economy
Financial markets are treading water as they wait to see what happens next
Traders in financial markets have had a fabulous month
Financial markets have sharply diverged from events in the real world
A month ago, we forecast that oil prices would go negative in Q2
Markets are being driven by speculators funded by the central banks, rather than long-term investors.
Wishful thinking remains the dominant feature in oil markets, as in our other key areas of the global economy
April will be the cruellest month, as the Covid-19 virus starts to have its full impact on health and the economy.
pH Outlook team
Paul Hodges is a Global Expert with the World Economic Forum: he speaks regularly at international conferences and writes for the Financial Times.
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Daniël de Blocq van Scheltinga
Daniël de Blocq van Scheltinga Is Hong Kong-based with a background in investment/ corporate banking; he was the first foreigner to run an SOE’s finance department in China.
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David Hughes is an expert on the Middle East, and worked in Saudi Arabia for 5 years.
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Dr Paul W Satchell
Paul Satchell understands financial markets, having been an equity analyst with several leading investment banks.
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This Research Note has been prepared by IeC for general circulation. The information contained in this Research Note may be retained. It has not been prepared for the benefit of any particular company or client and may not be relied upon by any company or client or other third party. IeC do not give investment advice and are not regulated under the UK Financial Services Act. If, notwithstanding the foregoing, this Research Note is relied upon by any person, IeC does not accept, and disclaims, all liability for loss and damage suffered as a result. The pH Report and pH Outlook are published by IeC.
© IeC 2020